June 14, 2024
The US financial system beat expectations within the first half of this yr, although circumstances will weaken within the second half of 2024, based on the June outcomes of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s biannual Livingston Survey.
The forecast additionally lowered predictions for the unemployment fee.
The economists now imagine actual GDP grew at an annual fee of two% throughout the first half of this yr, an enchancment from the earlier survey six months in the past after they predicted 1% development on an annualized foundation.
They anticipate circumstances to weaken within the second half of this yr, with development anticipated to be at an annual fee of 1.7%; nonetheless, that is up from the December 2023 forecast of 1.2%.
Development is anticipated to common an annual fee of two% within the first half of 2025.
Unemployment charges. The forecasters see a decrease unemployment fee for each this month and December than they predicted beforehand. The forecasters now anticipate a decrease unemployment fee this month at 3.9%, down from the 4.2% projected within the December survey. As well as, they now forecast the unemployment fee to be 4% in December, down from 4.2% within the prior survey. The unemployment fee is forecast to edge as much as 4.1% in June 2025.
Shopper worth index. On the year-to-year forecast for shopper worth index inflation, the economists anticipate an annual common fee of three.2% this yr, up from 2.5% within the December forecast, and a couple of.5% in 2025, up from 2.2% predicted in December.
The Livingston Survey was launched in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston and is the oldest steady survey of economists. The June survey included responses from 23 economists. It’s produced by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
